The chances of Storm Patty becoming a tropical event have increased over the past 24 hours.
Since October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area of the southwest Caribbean Sea for possible tropical development. The NHC said there is now a 60 percent chance the storm will strengthen into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days, up from 50 percent in yesterday’s update.
The chances of the storm intensifying over the next 48 hours remain low for now, at 30%, according to an update at 2 a.m. ET.
A tropical cyclone describes any storm exceeding the strength of a tropical depression, including tropical storms and hurricanes. For now, forecasters think there will be a tropical depression, with heavy rain over Central American countries like Nicaragua and Honduras.
“A large area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwest Caribbean Sea over the next few days,” the forecaster said. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week, while the system drifts generally north or northwest over the sea of the central or western Caribbean.”
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Brian Tang, associate professor of atmospheric sciences at New York University, said News week The storm does not appear to have the makings of a tropical cyclone at this time.
“Thunderstorms associated with the tropical disturbance are expected to further consolidate around the center of the disturbance,” it said. “A closed circulation is also expected to form around the center. Once this occurs, the tropical disturbance could further intensify and strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.”
The NHC said that regardless of how much it develops, for now, local heavy rains “are possible over portions of adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean.”
Weather Channel meteorologist Danielle Banks said it’s possible a “tropical depression will form” over the next weekend or early next week as the system continues to move north , towards Cancun and western Cuba. She said the storm was “certainly concerning” because heavy rain “could cause flooding in parts of Central America.”
However, the NHC said on X, formerly Twitter, that the storm posed no threat to the United States in the seven days following October 28.
Two other areas are currently being observed by NHC meteorologists, one in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and another in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both have low development chances at this point, ranging from 10 to 20 percent as of the 2:00 NHC update.
A total of 15 named storms have formed throughout the current hurricane season, including 10 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the United States: Beryl, Francine, Debby, Helene and Milton.
