The following is a transcript of an interview with retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on August 11, 2024.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Tensions are high in the Middle East, where fears of a widening regional war are rising a week after Israel killed a senior Hamas leader in Iran and two Hezbollah commanders. For more, we speak to retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. Good to see you again.
FORMER COMMANDER OF U.S. FORCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, GENERAL FRANK MCKENZIE: Glad to be here, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, we’ve talked repeatedly over the last few months, and the scenario that you’ve described as most concerning is the one that we apparently face, which is the entry of Lebanese Hezbollah into this conflict, potentially in a significant way. How would you characterize the current situation?
GENERAL MCKENZIE: Margaret, I think we’re hours away, maybe days, not weeks away from Lebanese Hezbollah going to war, and that’s always been the big variable. They’re the largest non-state military entity in the world, you know, a parasite on Lebanon, but they have tens and tens of thousands of rockets and high-precision missiles, and they can challenge Israel in a way that Iran and the Houthis, for that matter, are not able to, because of their geographic proximity, because of the number of weapons that they have. And that’s very worrisome. I’ve always thought that the most dangerous turn of events would be if they chose to go to war on a large scale. Now, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, has to make a very strategic decision about this, because he’s going to be exposed to a scathing Israeli counterattack if he chooses to go to war on a large scale. And what would that scale be? I don’t know. I would say that if he chooses to attack Israeli population centers, I would say that if a Hezbollah attack causes significant casualties, that would require the Israeli military to intervene with great force, and he recognizes that. And the last point I want to make is that Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Hezbollah are perhaps weaker in Lebanon today than they have been in many years, because of the destruction of the economy, because the country is in a governmental impasse, and because of the many problems in Lebanon that he has to think about before he chooses to fight Israel, foot by foot.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And this is certainly something that the diplomats who are trying to calm tempers are acutely aware of. Your successor, the commander of CENTCOM, General Kurilla, has visited Israel twice in the last week. We know that the United States has sent F-22 fighter jets to the region. How much do you think the American involvement will be?
GENERAL MCKENZIE: I think we got a taste of that last April, when the Iranian attack on Israel on April 13th was not a successful attack, and that was for a number of reasons, one of which was Israeli competence. The second was the assistance of the United States and some assistance from other countries in the region. All of those things helped to mitigate and deflect the Iranian attack. I think General Kurilla will probably try to replicate those same capabilities, that same approach this time around, but it will be a much more difficult task, again, if Lebanese Hezbollah chooses to intervene, because we are now facing a multi-axis attack, Iran to the east, Lebanese Hezbollah to the north. I am sure Hamas will intervene to the extent of its capabilities, and the Houthis will intervene. So this will be a significant test for Israel. We are committed to their defense. I think Central Command has done a great job in helping them prepare for this attack, which I believe is imminent.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It’s imminent. Would you expect to see American planes flying there, intercepting missiles, like they did last time?
GENERAL MCKENZIE: I think we would see the same model that was used last time. Now, the problem is that the Iranians and the Lebanese Hezbollah have had a chance to study that model. I’m sure they will try to make changes to it that will make it more difficult. On the other hand, we are also an organization that is learning to adapt, so we will look at our tactics, and we have very good commanders who can fight an air battle, and it will be an air battle that will take place, and I think we can be successful here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you think that the U.S. strategy of focusing on August 15 and a ceasefire in Gaza should still be the centerpiece of reducing tensions throughout the region?
GENERAL MCKENZIE: Certainly we should try to achieve a post-conflict state in Gaza. That is a goal that must be achieved, regardless of what happens in the region. I am not sure whether the current Iranian efforts against Israel are directly related to what is happening in Gaza. You know, the Iranian philosophy of life is fundamentally based on the destruction of the State of Israel. We have to take their word for it. They are not going to attack or come into conflict with Israel because of what is happening in Gaza. Their reasons are the very existence of Israel, and that transcends anything that is happening in Gaza.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sir, before I let you go, August 15th marks the anniversary of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan a few years ago. I wonder what you think about American security at this point?
GENERAL MCKENZIE: Well, I think about this a lot, Margaret. Three years later, our ability to see what’s happening in Afghanistan is quite limited. We believe that violent extremist organizations, like ISIS-K and other groups, are growing. They carried out a successful attack in Russia a few months ago. I’m concerned about the growth of these organizations and our relative lack of ability to see what they’re doing and to act against them, if necessary. So I think we’re in a weaker position today than we were a year or two ago, and I’m concerned about the future.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, it’s always a pleasure to talk to you and we’ll all be on our toes, as you said, in the days ahead. Thank you.
