ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center predicts Tropical Storm Rafael will become the 11th hurricane of the season on Tuesday as it heads toward Cuba with winds and storm surge expected to impact the Florida Keys this week.
As of the date of the NHC advisory at 10 a.m. EST, Rafael was located approximately 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica and 200 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving toward the northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from its center.
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the lower and middle Florida Islands from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as the Dry Tortugas.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila.
“Based on the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica until early afternoon and be located near or over the Cayman Islands.
Islands this evening and night, and will be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Steady to rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with additional strengthening before making landfall in Cuba.”
The NHC intensity forecast calls for it to reach Category 1 strength with sustained winds of 90 mph and gusts of 185 mph with its center less than 100 miles west of Dry Tortugas on Thursday morning, although the cone of uncertainty falls near the island.
Its wind field and northeast quadrant rains could impact southwest Florida starting Wednesday, but the National Weather Service in Miami gives only a 30 to 40 percent chance of winds from tropical storm strength along coastal Collier County, and 2 to 3 inches of rain as a worst-case scenario, totals that could be seen particularly in the middle and lower Keys.
“There is a limited tornado threat, with the primary area of concern over the interior and southwest portions of the region,” NWS forecasters said. “The presence of increased relative storm helicity, coupled with moderate instability, could allow a few tornadoes to reproduce.”
Maritime risks remain the Gulf Coast’s primary concern.
Storm surge is expected to range from 1 to 3 feet in the Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.
Immediate concerns for the Caribbean include rainfall totals that could reach more than 10 inches over Jamaica and Cuba through midweek with the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
Once it arrives in the Gulf of Mexico, its final destination along the Gulf Coast remains uncertain, with the predicted five-day trajectory still showing a wide range of potential, from Texas to the western panhandle of Florida.
“It is too early to determine what impacts, if any, Rafael may have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly,” forecasters said.
Its intensity, however, is expected to decrease from the hurricane’s strength before landfall, with drier air and stronger vertical wind shear present in the central Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC also continued to track a potential system that could form north of the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean in a few days.
“Thereafter, slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it moves generally westward over the southwest Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has now produced 17 named storms, 11 of which have developed into hurricanes, three of which hit the Florida Gulf Coast.
The official hurricane season runs through November 30.
