Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday, becoming the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system, previously called Tropical Depression 19, developed in the Western Caribbean earlier this week and intensified as it moved west toward Central America.

Sara experienced winds of 40 mph and is located about 50 miles northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, moving west, the National Hurricane Center said in an update at 1 p.m. HEY. A weather system is considered a tropical storm when wind speeds increase. at least 39 mph.

The storm is expected to linger in the Caribbean through the weekend and slowly move toward the Gulf of Mexico early next week. After that, his path is less clear. Nikki Nolan, a CBS News meteorologist, said many models now have it dissipating either after it enters the Gulf of Mexico or over Mexico, but several are still targeting it toward Florida.

“Florida residents should closely monitor forecast updates as they arrive,” Nolan advised.

Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity generally between mid-August and mid-October. An average season brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which predicted the 2024 season would produce “above average” numbers.

What is the predicted path of Tropical Storm Sara?

Tropical Storm Sara could potentially bring catastrophic rainfall to parts of Central America. Between 10 and 20 inches of heavy rainfall is possible in Honduras early next week, forecasters warned, with up to 30 inches accumulating in some places.

Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said they expected “life-threatening” flash floods to hit northern Honduras and persist through the weekend. The hurricane center also warned of potentially disastrous mudslides from the storm, particularly in the mountainous area along and near the Sierra La Esperanza on the country’s northeast coast. They estimated that these conditions would persist throughout the weekend.

The rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua will likely receive between 5 and 10 inches of rain as the storm moves through this region, but up to 15 inches is possible.

Governments across Central America have issued various alerts and warnings as people prepare for the effects of Sara. Large areas of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are under a hurricane watch or tropical storm warning, according to the hurricane center.

Will Tropical Storm Sara become a hurricane?

It remains to be seen whether Sara will strengthen into a hurricane as it is expected to approach the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday or Saturday, but forecasters said the storm would likely be “near or at hurricane strength.” when this happens.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph, making it a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Forecasters also warned people in Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula to prepare for possible impacts from Sara early next week.

Will Tropical Storm Sara hit Florida?

After entering the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models suggest the storm could turn right and head toward Florida by the end of next week, although Nolan noted conditions could change quickly. Other models predicted the storm would potentially move toward the central Gulf and could dissipate.

Hurricane hunters visited the region Thursday to study the strength and structure of the developing weather system.

Forecast models integrate current environmental factors along with historical data to calculate “spaghetti plots” of where systems can track. Each model uses different calculations, and the forecast trajectory is the result of the consensus of these models.

“It is too early to determine what impacts the system may have on parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba through the middle of next week,” the hurricane center said Thursday . “Residents in these areas should monitor forecast updates regularly.”

contributed to this report.