The chances of a system in the North Atlantic monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) strengthening into a tropical storm in the coming days have increased to 40 percent.
On Friday morning, the NHC began monitoring two additional systems in the Atlantic Ocean as well as the slowly strengthening one in the southwest Caribbean Sea, which it has been monitoring for about a week. Both new systems had a low chance of forming in the next 48 hours, at just 10 percent, but that chance has since quadrupled to 40 percent for the northern system in just seven hours.
“A low pressure system located a few hundred kilometers west of the Azores has produced increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Previous satellite-derived wind data showed storm-force winds primarily south of the center “, we can read in the press release. Most recent NHC forecast, released Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward over the next few days.”
News week contacted the NHC by email for comment.
National Hurricane Center
The forecast adds that Azores interests should monitor the progress of the system.
If a tropical storm forms, it will not impact the United States because its track will take it further east.
However, there are two systems likely to form in the Caribbean Sea that could impact States.
The system in the southwest Caribbean showed increasing chances of strengthening into Tropical Storm Patty as the week progressed. As of Friday afternoon, the system had a 30 percent chance of developing over the next two days and a 70 percent chance over the next week. Although an official track has not yet been released, the storm appears to have a chance of heading towards Florida, which has recently faced back-to-back major storms with Hurricane Helene in late September and Hurricane Milton in early october.
The system in the northeastern Caribbean Sea is less likely to form, given higher wind shear near the Bahamas that could tear the storm apart, AccuWeather reported, although the system could produce heavy rain locally .
“Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles,” the NHC forecast states. “After this period, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, local heavy rain is possible over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands westward, through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
All three systems show potential for formation in the coming days, meaning three tropical storms could blow into the Atlantic Ocean at the same time this weekend or early next week. The next three tropical storms will be named Patty, Rafael and Sara.
