Former President Donald Trump has narrowed the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, as the two candidates continue to battle for this year’s swing states.
According to the last New York Times–College of Siena survey, carried out in partnership with the Philadelphia Investigator between October 24 and November 2, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% each in the Keystone State.
The poll, which surveyed 1,527 voters in Pennsylvania, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
THE NOW-The Siena College poll tops the FiveThirtyEight pollster rankings, which consider historical accuracy and methodological transparency, and has the lowest score for bias and errors.
Puce Somodevilla/Getty Images
Harris enjoyed an advantage in all NOW– Siena, Pennsylvania, polls since entering the race in late July, with his lead extending to four points in the pollster’s previous survey. So the latest poll, taken in the days after Trump’s photo op at the Bucks County McDonalds on Oct. 21, could spell trouble for the vice president in this year’s most crucial battleground.
News week contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for their reaction to the latest poll.
With the election just days away, Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes make it a must-win swing state for both candidates, which would significantly increase their chances of securing the 270 votes needed to win the White House.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Other major polls indicate a similarly close contest in the state, with the latest The United States today/Suffolk showing the two men are neck and neck at 49 percent, while YouGov’s recent Swing State survey shows Harris leading the former president 48 percent to 46.
According to all FiveThirtyEight polls, Trump is ahead of Harris by 47.9% to 47.6%, and has maintained his advantage since October 20.
The result: Both candidates will spend time campaigning in Pennsylvania over the next two days. Trump will hold rallies in Lititz, Reading and Pittsburgh, while Harris will close out her campaign with rallies in Allentown, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on Monday.
Their running mates will cover the remaining areas, with JD Vance appearing in Aston on Sunday afternoon, followed by a rally in Newton on Monday. Meanwhile, Tim Walz and his wife, Gwen, will campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan on Monday before heading to Pennsylvania on Tuesday to mobilize voters in the final hours of the election.
Other battlefields are heading toward Harris, according to the NOW-Siena poll, with the vice president taking narrow leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, with Michigan tied and Trump maintaining his advantage in Arizona.
“It has been decades since polls showed the nation facing such a close presidential race in so many Sun Belt and Rust Belt states,” the New York Times said of of the latest results. “The hotly contested landscape means the race remains highly uncertain as the campaign enters its final hours.”
Do you have a story we should cover? Do you have any questions about this article? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com.
