As former President Donald J. Trump delivers his final economic pitch before the election, he is laying out a vision for a manufacturing renaissance that echoes a familiar narrative: Make goods in America and enjoy low taxes, or face punitive tariffs.
Mr. Trump’s speech combines the kind of carrot-and-stick approach he called “America First” during his first term, when he imposed steep tariffs on allies and competitors while cutting taxes on American businesses.
In a speech Tuesday in Savannah, Georgia, Mr. Trump suggested he would go far beyond that initial approach and embrace what he has dubbed a “new American industrialism.”
The former president has proposed creating “special” economic zones on federal lands, areas he says would benefit from lower taxes and less regulation. He has called for companies that make their products in the United States — regardless of where they are headquartered — to pay a 15 percent corporate tax rate, down from the current 21 percent. Companies trying to ship cars and other products into the United States from countries like Mexico would face tariffs of up to 200 percent.
But Mr. Trump’s vision of a “manufacturing renaissance” comes as Americans are increasingly wary of foreign investment, particularly from Asia. And while he imposed steep tariffs during his presidency, his efforts to prevent American companies from moving production overseas have run up against the harsh realities of lower-paid labor and technological advances in other countries.
When Mr. Trump was in office, manufacturing employment was essentially flat before the pandemic and had declined by the time he left office. In January 2021, the Alliance for American Manufacturing described his promises of industrial recovery as “mostly rhetoric.”
Mr. Trump’s rhetoric about strengthening American manufacturing is partly similar to what President Biden has advocated in recent years. The Biden administration has embraced a form of industrial policy not seen in decades, backing bills that have dedicated huge sums of money to specific industries, including semiconductors, clean energy and electric vehicles.
But Mr. Trump’s approach diverges sharply in many ways from that of Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.
Harris called for higher corporate taxes and said little about how she would use tariffs to influence manufacturing decisions. But she did point to the importance of the Inflation Reduction Act, the tax and climate legislation Democrats passed in 2022 that attracted foreign investment through lucrative tax credits available to help grow clean energy industries.
Mr. Trump wants to repeal this law and create a new system of tax breaks for certain sectors. In his speech, he said that companies that manufacture products in the United States would pay a tax rate of 15%.
“Foreign nations will worry about losing their jobs to America,” Mr. Trump said, predicting an exodus of manufacturing from China, South Korea and Germany to the United States.
Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax legislation helped boost foreign investment by making the U.S. corporate tax rate more competitive with other countries. But the tariffs he imposed on imports from China led to a surge in investment in Mexico, as companies invested there to circumvent the taxes and gain access to the U.S. market.
Mr. Trump appeared to acknowledge that development this week, saying he would impose tariffs of at least 100% on companies that made cars and other products in Mexico and then exported them to the United States.
At a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Monday, the former president took aim at Deere, the farm equipment maker. The company announced this year that it would move some of its production from Iowa to Mexico, putting the jobs of more than 200 workers at risk.
“I just informed John Deere that if you do this, we will impose a 200 percent tariff on anything you want to sell into the United States,” Trump said.
A Deere representative did not respond to Mr. Trump’s comments but said the company is “constantly examining production efficiencies” as it seeks to “leverage the highly skilled production workforce in the United States.”
This approach is reminiscent of his first term, when he used to criticize companies that considered moving production abroad, threatening tariffs and boycotts. In most cases, this strategy has had only limited success.
In 2016, before he took office, Mr. Trump pressured United Technologies, the parent company of heating and air-conditioning giant Carrier, to keep an Indianapolis plant open and not move jobs to Mexico. The company initially agreed to keep the plant open, preserving more than 700 jobs. However, in 2017 and 2018, Carrier cut about 500 jobs at that plant, moving them to Mexico.
In 2018, Mr. Trump took aim at Harley-Davidson when he announced that it would move some of its production overseas to avoid European tariffs on American products in retaliation for the president’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The motorcycle maker has pushed ahead with plans to build a plant in Thailand and close a factory in Kansas City, Missouri.
In 2019, Mr. Trump lambasted General Motors after the company announced plans to close a plant in Lordstown, Ohio, urging the company to “open that plant or sell it to somebody who will open it.” The company did not budge.
“I think propaganda rhetoric has its place,” said Todd Tucker, director of industrial and trade policy at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “But there’s a lack of focus and coherence in his policy decisions.”
The results of Mr. Trump’s efforts to attract foreign companies to set up shop in the United States have also been mixed.
In 2018, at the groundbreaking ceremony for Foxconn’s flat-screen TV plant in Wisconsin, Trump called the Taiwanese company’s project the “eighth wonder of the world.” Plans for the $10 billion plant were later scrapped due to changing market dynamics. Much of the planned site remains undeveloped, and most of the promised jobs have yet to be created.
Mr. Trump this week pledged again to make America a magnet for foreign investment, but he sent mixed messages about what types of investments are acceptable. Republicans and Democrats have been particularly wary in recent years of China-related investments that could threaten American national security or pose risks to sensitive supply chains.
Speaking to Pennsylvania farmers on Monday, the former president called for new restrictions on Chinese purchases of American farmland. In two speeches this week, he said the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel should be blocked by the federal government.
“This seems at odds with his plans to attract international business,” said Nancy McLernon, president of the Global Business Alliance, a lobbying group that represents international businesses. “Our political leaders should be unambiguously supporting and promoting cross-border investment from our key trading partners and strategic allies.”
Some of Mr. Trump’s ideas — like tax cuts — would require an act of Congress. Others could be implemented through the executive branch. Mr. Trump has also suggested that a new “ambassador” for manufacturing would help lead the hiring effort.
“We’re going to bring thousands and thousands of businesses and billions of dollars of wealth back to the good old country of the United States,” he said. “We’re going to do it and we’re going to do it fast.”
