The British military must be ready within three years to wage war against an “axis of insurgency” comprising Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, the new chief of the armed forces has warned.
While stressing that conflict was not inevitable, General Sir Roly Walker predicted that the Russian president Vladimir Poutine will emerge from its invasion of Ukraine “very, very dangerous” and “eager to get revenge” on countries like the UK that have supported Ukraine’s armed forces, whether Moscow wins or loses.
“The problem here is when you think that they [the Russians] “If they are down, they will come back in force for revenge,” he said during a briefing with reporters on the sidelines of an annual military conference.
Speaking in an unusually direct manner for a serving officer, General Walker also warned of the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwana desire for Iran developing nuclear weapons and the threat posed by North Korea.
He described how these countries are creating a relationship with each other – sharing weapons and technologies – and how this challenge could converge by 2027 to 2028.
“That’s why you get to this point by… 2027-2028, this convergence may have reached a kind of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with it in isolation – a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules-based system – I think is significantly diminished,” he said.
“A problem in one region is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and so it is a global problem being looked at from different angles across the world.”
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Given the threats, General Walker said there was an “urgent need” for British Army to rebuild its ability to deter future wars through credible combat power.
The commander also warned that the military would lose if it stuck to old ideas about warfare instead of adapting to embrace new technologies that are transforming the battlefield.
“I say that we are not on an inexorable path to war, but what we feel is an absolute urgency to re-establish credible coercive power in order to guarantee deterrence,” he said.
He described it as a “plan that is not war,” as he outlined in a speech, also on Tuesday, to the Army’s Land Warfare Conference in London.
The general said he aims to double the military’s ability to fight and kill by 2027 and destroy an enemy force at least three times its size by the end of the decade.
But the chief of the general staff said it would not require more troops or money – although he warned against further cuts to the size of the army and its budget.
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James Heappy: ‘The army needs money to be ready for war’
The new government last week launched a major defense reviewwhich will likely lead to capability cuts unless the Treasury commits to significantly increasing the defense budget.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5% of national income, from just over 2% currently. No deadline has yet been specified..
But many defence experts believe that even this level of build-up is still too low compared with what would be needed for the UK to credibly wage any kind of war, let alone a large-scale war of survival.
General Walker said the key — given the lack of time to acquire large new weapons systems — was to innovate and adapt, using autonomous weapons, artificial intelligence and other forms of new technology to make soldiers more effective, as the Ukrainian military is doing against Russia.
“We have just enough time…to prepare, act and ensure the re-establishment of credible ground forces to support a deterrence strategy,” he said in his speech.
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Addressing the state of the military, which has been drained of resources by decades of budget cuts since the end of the Cold War, the new leader recalled the reality and tried to make a virtue of the reduced size of his forces.
“We are actually a medium-sized military,” he said, saying that this was a characteristic that had to be taken into account and that it was “outdated” to assess strength based on “raw numbers.” The more meaningful measure is the combat power of the force.
“If we can double or even triple our combat power, any British land force will be able to destroy a force at least three times its size and keep going,” he said.
“This way we will have full confidence that we are ready and able to fight anyone and win.”
