UK prisons at risk of collapse as they could be full before early release scheme starts | Prisons and Probation

Prisons could still reach full capacity within weeks, despite new emergency measures announced by the Labour Party to release some prisoners earlier than planned.

The unprecedented measure to reduce the length of detention for most sentences to 40% will not come into force until September, and authorities fear that the capacity will be exceeded by the end of August. The justice minister has called the situation a “ticking time bomb”.

A senior prison source said the administration was “very concerned” about the expected increase in prisoner numbers after the August bank holiday weekend, warning that with just 700 adult male prison places remaining in England and Wales, the estate was “very vulnerable to shocks”.

The official added: “These can be major, high-profile shocks, like the civil unrest of 2011 or a prison riot, or they can be much more mundane things like a bedbug outbreak that would require us to close a wing and fumigate it for two or three weeks.”

The Conservative government’s early release scheme remains in place, while up to 200 police cells have been made available under Operation Safeguard to temporarily hold prisoners. Two other contingency arrangements are on standby if the crisis worsens.

Former prison governor Ian Acheson told the Observer The Ministry of Justice’s contingency plans “can probably contain things – just about”, but he added: “It’s going to be a difficult period for the next six weeks or so because I don’t see any immediate relief. With Operation Safeguard clogging up custody, we’re one major public order event, like protests or football-related unrest, away from collapse.”

If prisons are completely full, criminals will not be able to be transferred from police cells and official models suggest that police custody facilities across the country would run out of space within three days, making normal arrest procedures impossible.

Behavioural forecasts commissioned by police chiefs predict that uncontrolled crime, such as looting, would flare up, while offenders would feel able to breach bail and licence restrictions without consequences.

New measures announced by Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood on Friday aim to ease the pressure by releasing thousands more inmates early.

The change will see the automatic release limit for most standard sentences reduced from 50% to 40%, although serious violent offenders, as well as those imprisoned for sexual offences, terrorism and crimes associated with domestic violence, will be excluded from the scheme. The change cannot come into force until September because it requires a secondary bill to be passed by parliament.

Announcing the decision on Five Wells prison in Northamptonshire, Mahmood accused the Tories of leaving “a ticking time bomb for the government to defuse”. She added: “The capacity crisis will not go away immediately – these measures take time to take effect. But when they do, they will give us the time we need to solve the prison crisis, not just today but for years to come.”

Asked if she was concerned that prisons would reach capacity before the new programme came into force, Mahmood acknowledged that the next six weeks were “going to be extremely difficult”, adding: “We acted as soon as we could. It needs to be implemented and that takes time.”

The new policy will replace the Tories’ early release program, which has allowed more than 10,000 prisoners to be released up to 70 days early since it was launched in October. It required prison governors to make decisions on a case-by-case basis, and communication and scheduling issues left probation officers unable to put in place appropriate supervision and public protection plans.

The new justice minister has pledged to strengthen the probation system by recruiting at least 1,000 probationers by the end of March, while tackling reoffending. Mahmood said the new government would also accelerate prison construction and publish a 10-year capacity strategy this autumn.

But Andrew Neilson, campaigns director at the Howard League for Penal Reform, told the Observer He added that the likelihood of prisons running out of places before September remained “very high”. “Early release is an immediate measure to buy time, but other measures will need to be taken to prevent this from happening again,” he added.

Experts are calling on ministers to develop policies to reduce the number of offenders in prison and tackle long-term overcrowding, following waves of legislation aimed at increasing sentences and the proportion of time spent in jail.

Penelope Gibbs, director of Transform Justice, said: “We need to reduce the number of people imprisoned awaiting trial and those being re-incarcerated after release. But most importantly, we need to tackle the number of people we send to prison.”