JERUSALEM — With Israel’s defense minister announcing a “new phase” of the war and an Israeli attack apparently triggering explosions in electronic devices in Lebanon, the specter of an all-out battle between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading fast as Israel signals its desire to change the status quo in the north of the country, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese group began attacking on October 8, a day after Hamas launched its opening salvo in the war.
In recent days, Israel has deployed a powerful combat force to the northern border, officials have stepped up their rhetoric and the country’s security cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel as an official war aim.
Here’s a look at how Israel is preparing for war with Lebanon:
Gaza troops withdrawn from northern border
While daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated several times, the two sworn enemies have been careful to avoid all-out war.
That appears to be changing, especially after pagers, walkie-talkies, solar equipment and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack that Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You don’t do something like that, you don’t hit thousands of people and you don’t think there’s going to be a war,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn’t we do this for 11 months? Because we weren’t ready to go to war yet. What happens now? Israel is ready to go to war.”
What you need to know about the two waves of deadly explosions that hit Lebanon and Syria
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has built up its forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that has taken part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to comprise thousands of troops, including parachute infantry units and elite commandos specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division has played a key role in Gaza, leading the army’s operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive has inflicted heavy casualties on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but has also caused widespread damage, forced thousands of Palestinians to flee and resulted in dozens of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas is endangering civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it held a series of exercises this week along the border.
“The mission is clear,” said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as quickly as possible.”
A “new phase” of the war
The military moves have been accompanied by increased rhetoric from Israeli leaders, who say their patience is wearing thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared Wednesday night the beginning of a “new phase” of the war, as Israel turns its attention to Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is shifting northward by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He was speaking a day after the Israeli government decided to make the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal. The move was largely symbolic: Israeli leaders have long pledged to repatriate these residents. But giving more prominence to the goal meant a tougher stance.
After meeting with senior security officials on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We will bring the people of the north back to their homes safely.”
Netanyahu delivered a similarly harsh message to a high-ranking U.S. envoy sent to the region this week to ease tensions.
An official familiar with the meeting told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that escalating the conflict with Hezbollah would not help bring evacuated Israelis home.
According to a statement from his office, Netanyahu told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” U.S. support, Israel “will do what is necessary to preserve its security.”
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported on Wednesday that the government had not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much will depend, it seems, on Hezbollah’s response. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public opinion in Israel appears to favor tougher action against Hezbollah.
A poll conducted in late August by the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents believed Israel should step up its response to Hezbollah. Of those, 46 percent believed Israel should launch a deep offensive against Lebanese infrastructure, and 21 percent wanted an intensified response that would avoid hitting Hezbollah’s infrastructure.
“There is a lot of pressure from society for fighters to go to war and win,” said Avivi, a retired general. “Unless Hezbollah says tomorrow morning, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re withdrawing from southern Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating for both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since October 8, mostly fighters from Hezbollah and other armed groups, but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon in 2006, during a months-long war with Hezbollah that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even harsher measures this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction in Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah has also built up its capabilities since 2006. It has about 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking every region of Israel, Hezbollah could paralyze life in Israel and force hundreds of thousands of Israelis to flee.
Associated Press writer Natalie Melzer in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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