Trends suggest Utah is in theaters Saturday night as the local underdog in the first holy war in three years.
Even though the Utes have lost four in a row and changed players and quarterbacks.
Even though Brigham Young is undefeated and headed for a date in the Big 12 title game.
Even though the Cougars have eight wins and the Utes four.
And when trends speak, the Hotline generally listens. Here’s what they say:
— Utah has dominated the series, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings and seven of the last nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
— The underdog covered the spread in 15 of those 20 games.
— When one team has at least three more wins than the other at kickoff, the team with the better record is 3-0 in a row. but 1-2 against the spread.
Those same fundamentals exist this week with the Utes as four-point home underdogs.
But in a season that makes no sense, with the Cougars and Utes in a role reversal for the ages, our instinct is to avoid the sensible and reject the trends.
Ignoring the appeal of the local underdog in a show that favors the local underdog.
Our instinct is to take BYU, give up the points and watch the current trajectories continue.
The Utes find ways to lose.
The Cougars find ways to win.
We don’t know how this will play out, but we fully expect the unexpected. And in a series dominated by the underdogs, the unexpected result would be a decisive victory for the favorite.
The choices…
Last week: 4-3
Season: 50-35-1
Five Star Special: 5-5
All choices against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All Times Pacific)
Cal (-7) at Wake Forest
To start up: Friday at 5 p.m. on the ACC Network
Comment: Bears as road touchdown favorites? This presents an opportunity we cannot ignore – an opportunity to take on the underdog. Choose: Wake Forest
San Jose State (+4) at Oregon State
To start up: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Beavers have struggled defensively against the run (186 yards per game), but SJSU doesn’t have a running game to speak of. First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who previously coached Navy’s triple option, is all about the aerial game. This should benefit the Beavers. Choose: Oregon State
South Carolina (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
To start up: 1:15 p.m. on the SEC Network
Comment: Few teams across the country have been better against the spread than the Commodores, who have covered all five SEC games. The Gamecocks will be on the right track after upsetting Texas A&M and underestimating their opponent. Pick: Vanderbilt
UCF (+3) at Arizona State
To start up: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: This looks like a braking game for the Sun Devils, who clinched a bowl berth last week and will feel good about their trajectory — a little too good, in our opinion. Another unexpected result in the wild Big 12. Choose: UCF
Washington (+13.5) at Penn State
To start up: 5 p.m. on Peacock
Comment: There’s no better time to visit Happy Valley than the week after Penn State suffered a crushing loss to Ohio State. We’re not sure the Huskies can make enough offensive plays to win, but they should be able to cover if the Nittany Lions start with a hangover at OSU. Choose: Washington
Brigham Young (-4) at Utah
To start up: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Both teams have had two weeks to prepare, so there’s no competitive advantage either way. One of the crucial differences between the Cougars and Utes is success in situational football: the former scores touchdowns on two out of three trips inside the red zone; the latter scores on less than half of his opportunities in the red zone. Field goals won’t be enough. Choose: Brigham Young
Utah State (+20.5) vs. Washington State
To start up: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Aggies have a win over an FBS opponent (Wyoming) while the Cougars have a loss against an FBS opponent (Boise State). It shouldn’t be close. And that won’t be the case, at least in the fourth quarter. Choice: Washington State
Direct winners: Wake Forest, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, UCF, Penn State, Brigham Young and Washington State
Five Star Special: Brigham Young. The Cougars are 7-1 against the spread this season; the Utes are 2-6. Let’s not overcomplicate the situation.
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