As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to degenerate into a war of attrition, some experts say the West lacks a coherent and effective plan to bring the conflict to a decisive conclusion.
According to the Kiel Institute, the United States and Europe have allocated about 176 billion euros in aid to Ukraine as of April 30. While the financial and military aid shows no signs of slowing down, it may be both too little and too late, hampering Ukraine’s chances of victory, analysts say.
John Lough is a research associate in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London and was previously NATO’s representative in Moscow.
“Western countries are still ready to support Ukraine, but they have no strategy to end the war,” Lough said. Newsweek“They missed an opportunity in 2022 to give Ukraine what it needed before the Russians moved in and started preparing for a long war.”
Newsweek contacted NATO to inquire about its strategy for dealing with the conflict and to ask whether it considers that funding for Ukraine is insufficient.
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Lough’s remarks came in response to the delivery of the first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine last week, which President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday were already operational.
However, according to Lough, their deployment alone would not be enough to reverse the tide of the conflict.
“A much more important question, in my view, is whether the US, UK and France will drop restrictions on the use of their missiles to allow the Ukrainian military to attack targets in Russia itself,” Lough said.
When President Joe Biden first pledged to provide the Ukrainian air force with American-made jets, he said it was on the condition that they would not be used to launch attacks against targets in Russia.
“The West is still more concerned about the short-term risks of escalation than the long-term consequences of a Ukrainian defeat in the war,” Lough said.
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Lough previously co-authored a June 2023 report titled “How to End Russia’s War on Ukraine,” in which he argued that the West should “demonstrate to the Kremlin that it will devote the resources necessary to preserving Ukraine’s independence.”
Timothy Ash, a fellow at Chatham House and another contributor to the report, echoed Lough’s concerns and said the general consensus was that the West had been too cautious in equipping the Ukrainian military.
“I think most Ukraine watchers – I’ve been covering Ukraine for 36 years – are just frustrated by the excess of caution when it comes to arms shipments to Ukraine,” Ash said. Newsweekadding that the West should not be intimidated by Russian threats in response to this aid.
“What we should have learned from Putin over the last two and a half years is that he is afraid of a direct conflict with NATO, because Russia would lose any conventional war there very quickly,” Ash said. “That’s why his red lines on NATO arms deliveries to Ukraine are very weak.”
“We should go all out and provide Ukraine with all the conventional equipment it needs to defend itself,” he added. “That’s the easiest way to deter Putin.”
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