Israel and Hezbollah each have strong reasons to respond to international calls for a ceasefire that could avert all-out war – but that doesn’t mean they will.
Hezbollah is reeling after a sophisticated attack on personal devices that killed and injured hundreds of its members. Israeli airstrikes have killed two senior commanders in Beirut in less than a week, and military planes have pounded what Israel considers Hezbollah sites in large parts of Lebanon, killing more than 600 people.
So far, Israel clearly has the upper hand militarily, which could make it less inclined to compromise. But it is unlikely to stop Hezbollah’s rocket attacks with air power alone, and a threat of a ground invasion of Lebanon poses major risks.
After almost a year of war, Israeli troops are still fighting Hamas in Gaza. And Hezbollah is a much more formidable force.
“Hezbollah has not yet used 10% of its capabilities,” wrote military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot, Israel’s largest daily. “The euphoria that reigns among decision-makers and part of public opinion should be relegated to the attic: the situation is still complex and flammable.”
The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day ceasefire to “give space for diplomacy.”
But any deal would force both sides to give up their core demands, and they could decide the price is too high.
Hezbollah also wants a truce in Gaza
Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into northern Israel after Hamas’ attack in the south on Oct. 7 sparked the Gaza war. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are allies of Iran, and the Lebanese group says it is acting in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Israel responded with waves of airstrikes. In total, the fighting has killed dozens of people in Israel, more than 1,500 in Lebanon and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah said it would end attacks if there was a ceasefire in Gaza. But months of negotiations on Gaza led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have repeatedly failed, and Hamas may be less motivated to reach a deal if it believes Hezbollah and Iran are will join a broader war against Israel.
For Hezbollah to stop its rocket attacks without achieving tangible gains for the Palestinians would be seen as a capitulation to Israeli pressure, when all of its recent casualties were suffered in vain.
Any deal involving a ceasefire in Gaza would be a tough sell for Israel, which would view it as recompense for Hezbollah rocket attacks that displaced tens of thousands of its citizens for nearly a year.
For Israel, a ceasefire may not be enough
Israel’s objectives in Lebanon are much narrower than in Gaza, where Prime Minister Benjmain Netanyahu has vowed “total victory” over Hamas and the return of many hostages.
Israel wants tens of thousands of people who were evacuated from northern communities nearly a year ago to return home safely. And he wants to ensure that Hezbollah will never carry out an October 7 type attack.
A one-week ceasefire – which would give Hezbollah a chance to reset after major attacks on its chain of command and communications – may not be enough.
Few Israelis are likely to return if they know it is only temporary, and even a lasting ceasefire deal would be met with skepticism.
The UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah called on the fighters to withdraw north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the border, and for the area between the two is patrolled by Lebanese forces and the UN. blue helmets.
Israel says this provision has never been implemented and will likely require additional guarantees in any new ceasefire. But Hezbollah is far stronger than Lebanon’s regular armed forces and the UN detachment, neither of which would be able to impose a deal by force.
Netanyahu’s partners want him to keep fighting
Netanyahu leads the most religious and nationalist government in Israeli history. His far-right coalition partners have threatened to overthrow his government if he makes too many concessions to Hamas, and they will also likely oppose any deal with Hezbollah.
Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s hard-line finance minister, said Thursday that Israel’s campaign in the north “should only end in one scenario: crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm the people of the north.”
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, said he would not support a temporary ceasefire and would leave the government if it became permanent.
Although opposition parties would likely support the ceasefire, the defection of its partners would ultimately bring down Netanyahu’s government and force early elections, potentially leaving it even more exposed to investigations into the 7’s security failures. October and pre-war corruption accusations. . It could even mean the end of his long political career.
Iran sends mixed signals
In Lebanon, Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire proposal, but he has little power to impose a deal on Hezbollah.
Iran, which helped create Hezbollah in the 1980s and is the source of its advanced weapons, has more influence over the group but has not yet expressed its position on a cease-fire. -fire. They probably fear a broader war that could put them in direct conflict with the United States, but they cannot sit idly by indefinitely while their most powerful proxy force is dismantled.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relatively moderate elected this summer, adopted a more conciliatory tone toward the West than his predecessors when he addressed the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
But he had harsh words for Israel and said its intensive bombing of Lebanon in recent days “cannot go unanswered.”
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