President Biden is out of the race for 2024 and is backing Vice President Harris to succeed him in November, raising questions about what the polls can tell us about his chances against former President Trump.
Although Harris still needs to win enough delegates before the party’s national convention next month to secure the official endorsement, she is now the heir apparent. That will come as a relief to many Democrats who had been alarmed by Biden’s disappointing poll numbers in recent weeks.
But the vice president would face her own challenges if she were to face Trump, according to the latest polling averages from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill.
Trump, who formally accepted the Republican nomination at the Republican Party convention last week, leads Harris by 2 points in all national polls, 47 percent to 45 percent. That’s about the same as Trump’s 2.5-point lead over Biden, with 46 percent to the incumbent’s 43.5 percent.
With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the race, Trump has a 6-point lead over Harris, 43 percent to 37 percent, while Kennedy is at 6 percent.
The vice president’s popularity is at 38%, slightly lower than Biden’s 41%.
“Her popularity nationally mirrors Biden’s — it’s not great,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ, a week before news of Biden’s departure broke. “Her advantage, though, is that she doesn’t have all of Biden’s baggage, and voters are going to look at her in a fresh light.”
Trump’s lead over Harris, 2 points in the polls, is down sharply from about 8 points earlier this year, and other recent polls offer his supporters some reason for hope.
In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted in mid-July, about 8 in 10 Democrats said they approved of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden withdrew, and just over a quarter said they thought she would have a better chance than Biden of winning against Trump.
A CBS News poll released last week found Harris doing better than Biden against Trump, with Harris trailing by 3 points and Biden by 5 points.
A CNN poll released after the first presidential debate, in which Biden’s disappointing performance reignited talk of his removal from the race, showed Harris trailing Trump more than Biden. She came in just 2 points behind the former president, while Biden trailed by 6 points.
Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi Inc. put the vice president ahead of Trump by one point in a survey released earlier this month.
Harris is also “the easiest candidate” among the leading Democrats being proposed for the hypothetical nominee to slide into Biden’s shoes, given the mechanics of the process, Tranter said.
She is best positioned to take over Biden’s campaign apparatus and the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) fundraising system without undue legal complications, strategists noted, and her agenda is already clearly aligned with Biden’s.
The vice president is also 59, more than 20 years younger than Biden, and a Black woman — attributes that could appeal to key demographics within the Democratic base.
“When you have a young black woman on the ticket instead of Joe Biden, it really eliminates a lot of the arguments that Republicans are going to use against him. [Biden]”She has the ability to campaign on all the positives in her record without her health being the primary focus,” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins.
At the same time, Trump-Harris hypothetical polls in individual states indicate that the contest will be tough. Biden trailed Trump in several key areas before dropping out of the race, and the latest numbers suggest a similar surge for Harris.
Trump has a lead of about 9 points in Nevada, 7 points in Arizona and 6 points in Georgia, according to DDHQ averages.
Trump has a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 1-point lead in Wisconsin and less than half a point in Michigan, while Harris has a 3-point lead in Virginia.
Overall, however, there is not yet much polling data testing a Harris-Trump contest, either nationally or at the state level, and these averages are based on six or fewer polls in each state.
DDHQ’s forecast models are expected to remain inactive for a few weeks to collect more data, the team said, given the historic change to the race.
The speculation has focused media and voter attention on Harris, raising the prospect of scrutiny that would only intensify if she replaces Biden as the party’s nominee. It’s unclear how the increased media attention might affect her poll numbers.
Attention has already turned to who might join Harris as a running mate — and while Trump’s choice of vice president isn’t expected to sway voters much, the decision could potentially have more impact on a Harris ticket.
Tranter argued that being in the spotlight gives Harris “an opportunity to reset.”
“I don’t expect the polls to show she’s going to beat Trump, but she’s going to run a full campaign and make a fresh start, without having to answer questions about her mental fitness to serve,” he said of the possibility that she could become the nominee.
Harris must now secure the support of the more than 3,800 delegates Biden won through the primary process as the party heads to the Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August in Chicago. While most Democratic delegates have pledged to pick Biden, they are not obligated to do so in the unprecedented event that he withdraws.
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