TOKYO (AP) — Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party holds a key vote Friday to choose a new national leader.
Voting is limited to members of parliament and dues-paying members of the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for many years. Since the party’s ruling coalition dominates parliament, the winner is guaranteed to become Japan’s next prime minister.
A record nine lawmakers, including two women, are vying for the post in an unpredictable race.
The winner will need to quickly regain public trust or Japan could face a return to a damaging cycle of short-lived governments, experts warn.
How does the election work?
Voting is limited to LDP lawmakers and 1.1 million rank-and-file members, less than 1 percent of the country’s eligible voters.
No candidate is expected to win a majority in the first round due to the split in votes. The winner will likely be determined in a runoff between the two candidates with the most votes.
Votes for the LDP leadership were once determined by the party’s powerful faction leaders, but experts say that could change this time around as all but one faction has announced its dissolution following the party’s corruption scandals.
The vote is crucial for the LDP, which is seeking a leader who can revive public support for the party after scandals that damaged Kishida’s popularity.
What does this vote mean for Japan?
Experts say the election could mark a return to an era similar to the early 2000s, when “revolving door” leadership changes and political instability only ended with the eight-year rule of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
This is because the new leader will not enjoy the stable support of powerful factions.
Kishida’s three-year term as president took over from Yoshihide Suga, who held power for a year before being forced to resign over his unpopular handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Frequent changes in government make it difficult for Japanese leaders to address long-term policy goals or develop trusting relationships with other leaders. However, Japan’s diplomatic and security policy will continue to rely on its key alliance with the United States.
By reducing the influence of factions, the prime minister can wield more power, but stability depends on the country’s popularity, said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo. The question is whether the next prime minister will be able to carry out political reform. A new leader will also have to deal with soaring military costs, child care and climate change, he added.
The most serious scandal concerns the refusal of several dozen influential party members to declare their political donations. This situation led to the indictment of several lawmakers, their staff and their accountants. Kishida’s party has tightened laws on political funds and conducted an internal investigation, but its critics say these measures have not been enough.
“I foresee continued stagnation in the political situation, with the LDP constantly changing its face,” said Chiyako Sato, a political columnist for the Mainichi newspaper.
Who’s running?
All nine candidates are serving or former ministers.
Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister, regularly leads media polls. Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a popular former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, trails Ishiba. Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, an Abe protégé and a staunch conservative who ran against Kishida in 2021, is a close third.
Experts say two of the three candidates are likely to advance to a runoff. But it is difficult to predict a winner, as a runoff could be influenced by backroom dealings among party heavyweights.
A first female Prime Minister?
Takaichi and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa are seeking to become Japan’s first female leaders.
Much of the responsibility, however, falls on senior male veterans such as former prime ministers Taro Aso, Suga and Kishida.
Of the two women, Takaichi ranks higher than Kamikawa in media polls. She has ties to members of the Abe faction, including those implicated in the secret funds scandal, and her conservative support for paternalistic traditions is criticized by some as bad for the advancement of women.
Some consider Kamikawa a safe choice. She says the mere fact that she can participate in the race demonstrates the existence of a new LDP.
Women make up just 10.3 percent of members of Japan’s lower house of parliament, ranking the country 163rd in terms of female representation among 190 countries surveyed in a report released in April by the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union.
In Japan’s largely paternalistic culture, it is still normal for sons to inherit political power from their fathers, which often limits the opportunities for women from non-political families to run. Among the nine candidates are five hereditary male politicians.
What happens next?
On October 1, Kishida and his cabinet ministers will resign. The new head of state, after receiving parliamentary approval, will form a new cabinet later that day.
The current term of the lower house runs until October 2025, but most candidates plan to call snap elections soon after taking office. Observers expect the elections to be held in the coming weeks, so the new prime minister can try to capitalize on a new image.
The main opposition party, the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, won some victories in local elections this year. The scandals surrounding it contributed to that victory. But the party has since struggled to gain momentum.
The CPDJ chose former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its leader on Monday, a conservative shift likely aimed at attracting swing voters and LDP supporters disgusted by scandals.
Political observers say the opposition is too divided to attract voters who want to punish the LDP, and there is some skepticism that opposition parties are viable alternatives.
At a campaign rally for LDP candidates in Tokyo, party member Shohei Tsunoda, 72, said: “It would be nice if we could have a system like in America, where two parties compete and take turns in power. But for now, the CPDJ doesn’t seem to have that kind of strength.”
___
Follow AP’s Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific
