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Buyers and homeowners looking to refinance both received positive news earlier this month when Mortgage interest rates have fallen to their lowest level in two years. The decline is partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve reduce its federal funds rate. And the Fed did indeed take that action later in the day, delivering a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut. Yet most (if not all) of that cut had already been priced in by mortgage lenders. This begs the question of when mortgage interest rates will fall again.
Predicting rate changes for a product can be difficult, if not impossible (especially for mortgage interest rates which are influenced by a a variety of factors besides just the Federal Reserve). But that doesn’t mean buyers and homeowners can’t still get a rough idea of when rates will adjust lower. Below, we detail three calendar dates to watch when rates could fall.
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When will mortgage interest rates drop again?
With so many factors influencing mortgage interest rates, it’s worth daily monitoring. But the following three dates could be particularly influential:
October 3, 2024
Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), a widely followed financial services company that tracks mortgage activity, will release its next Mortgage Watch Report on that date. And it could be interesting now that mortgage rates are steadily falling. So check it out for insights on trends, home prices and buyer sentiment, in particular. Lenders will also be looking at it to gauge any moves they want to anticipate and, as a result, may start to cut their mortgage rates in response.
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October 4, 2024
Unemployment data for the previous month is typically released on the first Friday of the current month. So pay attention to the September numbers on Friday, October 4. While they may seem unrelated to mortgage rates at first glance, a problematic report of subdued growth or, worse, rising unemployment numbers could influence the Fed’s thinking about further rate cuts. Mortgage lenders could then start to anticipate additional rate cuts. So, bad unemployment news on that date could lead to further adjustments in mortgage rates this Friday and the following week.
October 10, 2024
October 10 will be the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its next inflation report. Another rate cut then could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates again at its November meeting (No Fed meeting scheduled for October). These data will go a long way in informing the Fed’s longer-term approach to rates, as they will be the first round of inflation data to be released after the September rate cut. Watch them closely.
The essentials
October 3, 4 and 10 could all be days when mortgage rates could drop again. But while rates could move more dramatically on these dates than others to come, the overall climate is fluid right now, so buyers and homeowners alike should take a more proactive approach. After years of waiting for mortgage rates to finally become affordable again, the time to act could be now for some buyers, or just weeks away for others.
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