Just two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded the Florida coast, Milton has strengthened into a major hurricane heading toward the state.
The system threatens the densely populated Tampa metropolitan area – home to more than 3.3 million people – and threatens the same part of the Florida coast that was hit by Helen.
It could maintain hurricane strength as it moves through central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That path would largely spare other states ravaged by Helen, which killed at least 230 people as it moved from Florida to the Carolinas.
Where will the hurricane hit Florida?
Milton intensified rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters Tuesday morning that “we have to prepare for a major, major impact on the west coast of Florida.”
As of Monday afternoon, Milton was a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and was centered about 675 miles (1,085 kilometers) southwest of Tampa.
Those winds eased to 145 mph (233 km/h) Tuesday morning and the hurricane was downgraded to Category 4 status. It was centered about 877 kilometers southwest of Tampa. The hurricane center said Milton would remain “an extremely dangerous hurricane until it makes landfall in Florida.”
Florida’s entire Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surge.
Helene landed about 150 miles from Tampa, in the Florida Panhandle, and still managed to cause drownings in the Tampa area due to waves of about 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.
Forecasters warned of a possible storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) in Tampa Bay. This is the highest level ever planned for this location.
The storm could also cause widespread flooding. Five to 12 inches of rain were forecast across the Florida peninsula, with up to 18 inches (45 centimeters) expected in some places.
Tampa International Airport announced it was halting flights at 9 a.m. Tuesday. The airport has posted on X that it is not a shelter for people or their cars.
St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it was in a mandatory evacuation zone and would close after the last flight departs Tuesday.
When will the hurricane hit?
“The big question is whether the plane will land as Category 4 or 3,” NBC 5 meteorologist Alicia Roman said, noting that models come and go.
“Nevertheless, this will be a very destructive storm with a storm surge up to 20 feet high,” Roman said, regarding wave heights. “Think of a wall of water.”
Once it reaches Florida, Milton is expected to cross the state and hit the east side around 1 p.m. Thursday, Roman said, although it is expected to be downgraded even further at that time, to Category 1.
“This is once again causing so much chaos and devastation in the Big Bend area of Florida,” Roman said, noting that the area had just been ravaged by Hurricane Helene.
Here’s a look at the Milton’s journey and when it’s expected to arrive.
Tuesday
The storm was located along the Mexican coast Tuesday morning, with hurricane warnings still in effect as heavy rains continue.
Rain bands ahead of the hurricane are expected to begin extending toward the Florida coast, meaning some showers and thunderstorms could begin to impact the state 36 hours or more before the storm officially makes landfall.
Officials say Tampa International Airport will also halt operations starting at 9 a.m. Tuesday due to the approaching storm.
By Tuesday evening, the storm will move away from Mexico and toward the coast of Florida, affecting western parts of Cuba as it crosses the Gulf as a powerful hurricane.
More rain will also begin to fall on Florida ahead of the hurricane, with flood watches and warnings likely as the day progresses.
Wednesday
By late morning, tropical storm force winds are expected across most of the state, with heavy rain also affecting a large portion of the state, from the Panhandle to the Florida Keys.
Operations at Orlando International Airport are expected to be suspended Wednesday morning ahead of the hurricane’s arrival.
The storm is expected to weaken as it approaches the state, but it will still be considered a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall, according to current estimates.
The storm is expected to make landfall around 1 a.m. It could do so near densely populated areas of the state, near Tampa and St. Petersburg, according to estimates.
There is a potential for massive storm surge associated with the hurricane, between 10 and 15 feet as it enters Tampa Bay and of similar height in other nearby coastal areas, with an area between Yankeetown and Bonita Beach likely to experience a massive increase in water levels.
Due to heavy rainfall, there is a considerable risk of flash flooding, as well as moderate to major river flooding in affected areas.
Areas of central Florida are virtually certain to experience tropical storm force winds or higher as the storm passes, according to National Weather Service modeling.
Even if the hurricane weakens to a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall, sustained winds between 110 and 130 miles per hour would still be possible in areas near the eye of the hurricane.
THURSDAY
By Thursday morning, most of the storm is expected to have passed over the Florida peninsula, but it will likely continue to drench the region with rain and could cause flooding issues along the Atlantic coast.
The heaviest rains are currently expected in central parts of the state.
In total, between 6 and 8 inches of rain or more could fall in most areas, although localized totals of up to 15 inches are possible.
There is a “moderate” risk of flash flooding across most of the peninsula.
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What makes Hurricane Milton “unusual”? How the fast-moving storm is different
It’s not uncommon for hurricanes to threaten the Florida coast in October, but fast-moving Hurricane Milton isn’t quite the norm, experts say.
Milton is a bit unusual since it formed so far west and is expected to move across the entire southern Gulf, according to Daniel Brown, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
“It is not uncommon to have a hurricane threat in October along the west coast of Florida, but forming up to the southwest Gulf and then hitting Florida is a little more unusual,” Brown said. Most of the storms that form in October and hit Florida originate in the Caribbean, not the southwest Gulf, he said.
Milton “rapidly” intensified into a dangerous Category 5 storm within hours, threatening dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for possible mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic hurricane Helene flooded the coastline.
MORE: Hurricane Milton nears limits of what Earth’s atmosphere can produce
The increase from Category 4 to Category 5 occurred just before 11 a.m., as Milton had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Added to the unexpected elements is the location where Milton could make landfall.
This is the worst-case “black swan” scenario that has worried MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel and other hurricane experts for years.
Part of the reason is that for whatever reason – experts say it’s mostly luck with a little geography thrown in – Tampa hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane since the deadly Hurricane of 1921 which had an 11 foot (3.3 meter) storm surge that flooded downtown Tampa. , even though there wasn’t much in the city at the time, Emanuel said. Since then, a metropolis has developed and it is populated by people who think they have experienced big storms when that is not the case, he says.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very untested and it’s a losing proposition,” said Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years. “I always thought Tampa would be the city I would worry about the most.”
He said the entire basin is shaped and low-lying, making it very susceptible to flooding.
