Republicans appear poised to take control of the U.S. Senate while Democrats could take over the House as voters across the country cast their ballots on Tuesday.
Early results gave Republicans an edge, as West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice won a U.S. Senate seat in that state, according to an Associated Press projection. The seat is now held by Democrat Joe Manchin, who is retiring.
Democrats now control 51 of the Senate’s 100 seats. If Democrats lose no more seats, the Senate would be split 50-50 between the parties. Control would then depend on who wins the White House, since the vice president is president of the Senate and breaks ties.
However, reaching the 50-50 ratio could now be difficult for Democrats. Analysts see Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Bob Casey, D-Pa., Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada, and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin, as potential Republican pickups. Also in play is Michigan, where Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, is retiring.
In California, polls indicate that Rep. Adam Schiff, a Glendale Democrat, is likely to eke out a victory over Republican Steve Garvey for the state’s U.S. Senate seat. Sen. Laphonza Butler, a Democrat, was appointed to the seat last year to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
California could play a larger role in determining the House winner, as five races are deemed too close to call. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control for the first time since 2019 and make Hakeem Jeffries of New York the first Black president.
Most independent analysts view the race for control as unpredictable. Close battles in New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and elsewhere will provide early clues about where voters are going.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan group that analyzes House races, estimates that eight seats are now held by Democrats and seven in Republican hands.
A total of 218 seats are needed to secure a majority, and if neither party has secured that many seats by the time California polls close at 8 p.m. PST, the state will have a handful of volatile contests that will become crucial.
California races
Here are the state’s districts to watch:
▪ 13th. Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, is in a rematch with former Democratic Rep. Adam Gray., D-Merced. Duarte beat Gray by 564 votes in 2022, one of the closest races in the country. The district includes Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, and has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
▪ 22. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is dueling again with former Rep. Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield. Valadao narrowly beat Salas two years ago. President Joe Biden would have won this district by 13 points in 2020, and the district has far more registered Democrats than Republicans. The district includes parts of Tulare and Kern counties and most of Kings County.
▪ -27. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, continues to survive in this district. In 2020, he won a special election and was the first Republican in the state in years to win in a district represented by a Democrat. Garcia is taking on George Whitesides, the former NASA chief of staff during the Obama administration.
▪ 41st. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. He is a powerful figure in House Republican circles as chairman of the subcommittee that drafts defense spending bills, but that also makes him a target in one congressional district. Calvert faces former federal prosecutor Will Rollins.
▪ 47th. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, left this Orange County seat to run for Senate, where she was defeated by Adam Schiff in the March primary. Porter won for the first time in 2018, defeating an incumbent Republican in a seat the GOP had held since its inception in the 1950s. This year, Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney, and Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, ran. contest the seat.
