Women are dominating early voting in the 2024 election so far, sparking concern among some allies of former President Donald Trump.
Women are outvoting men nationally and in all seven battleground states, according to NBC News’ early ballot returns tracking system. Of the more than 58 million mail-in and in-person votes cast nationwide, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is a gap of at least 10 points between men and women in early voting. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of early votes and men about 43 percent.
Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, is key to both Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, and both have campaigned in that state more than any other, with polls showing a close race in the last days of the campaign. News week contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
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Although it’s unclear how women who voted early voted, the data worries Trump supporters who fear it could indicate he can’t win in November.
“Early voting was disproportionately female. If the men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” wrote Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point, an organization that has become a powerful ally of the campaign. Trump, on X, formerly Twitter. .
Mike Cernovich, a right-wing political commentator, wrote that “male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster.” He added: “Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA [Pennsylvania] and it’s over.”
Harris made defending abortion rights central to her campaign – an issue that has become an electoral liability for Republicans – and targeted women of all races and educational backgrounds, including Republican women unhappy with abortion rights. former president.
Early voting data encourages Democrats who see women as key to propel Harris to the White House.
“In some states, women are actually exceeding their vote share compared to 2020, which is shocking to me at this point,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of data company TargetSmart, told Politico.
However, it is unclear whether increased female turnout is uniquely beneficial to Harris since Trump has found success in his recent calls for Republicans to vote before Election Day, after previously attacking all forms of early voting.
More registered Republicans than Democrats voted by mail or in person in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as of Thursday morning, although Democrats face Republicans ahead of Republicans in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“We’re seeing an increase in the number of Republicans of all types, men and women, who are voting,” Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks early voting data as part of his election project, told Politico in the United States. “It’s just that women are always ahead and keeping up.”
